Outlook of MVIS stock in the next 6~8 months

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Well, if you're in it, so be honest with them.

At this current stage, Microvision's PPS is in the news-driven mode. The stock price will be floating among investors' emotion. Until it gets through this period into revenue-driven mode, it's difficult to see it go up steadily.

First, the celebration date keeps getting changed. Unfortunately It's not in 2010. This rally is a sucker's rally until we get some meaningful news - be it from MVIS or multiple sources on the internet which gives clarity into MVIS's 2011 financial outlook.

The volume spike is good, but ignore everyone here, until we see something or get several credible rumors about MVIS, it will end with a smack down back under $2/share by the shorts.

The recent insider buying at $1.5 by Michael Fritts on Nov 12,2010  is a good indicator that PPS probably has hit the bottom. In Dec. 3rd and today's bounces, the $1.62 seems to be the price point where the big buyer wants to get in.
(Ref : http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=MVIS+Insider+Transactions)

The first 6 months of 2011 are critical for MVIS. If there are positive changes happening behind the scenes, we may or may not hear about it, but the share price should rally. If you look back the last few years since Tokman took over, share price had its rallies into June and then fizzled out through the end of the year, slowly drifting lower and lower.

So here's why the first half of the year is critical. Today, consumer electronic companies are in the prototype phase of product development. If something is going to have a pico projector in it in 2011, there is an early version of it circulating around. A lot of products get showcased to the public @ CES in January 2011. Many more are not shown to the public and you won't hear about them - MVIS likely fits into this category.

In next February, the Mobile World Congress (Barcelona, Spain on 14-17 Feb, 2011) is when we start to get an avalanche of device debuts for launch in the May - August time frame, which is now the main launch window for most of the new mobile devices.

If you don't hear or see anything between those two events to suggest MVIS is inside a key new product, then your anxiety level should go up a bit, but don't despair. A lot of products are kept secret and only shown to those under NDA (Non-Disclosure Agreement). But - despite the NDAs, information starts leaking out anyway. If by end of the first quarter there is no substantiated rumors about MVIS or positive PR from MVIS, then you should absolutely advise people to sell into the rally for the first half of the year.

All that being stated, I maintain we're into our sucker rally, the PPS will probably drift lower in early next year, and then around the next earnings, will begin to really take off.

The only thing which changes time frame are news about purchase orders sent by MVIS PR, and leaks with their product embedded. If you see a bunch of rumors start about, say, the next iPad having an embedded projector, it's safe to buy and hold for the longs. For short term players, if you hear nothing, again, start planning for your exit .