Verizon to Release Motorola Smartphone for 4G Network in 2011

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The news today ( Dec. 21, 2010 )  that Verizon Wireless will distribute a smartphone made by Motorola Inc. to run on its new 4G network. For Microvision, it is a pretty good sign that has the following implications:

(1) Considering the close relationship between Microvision and Motorola now, it's just a matter of time MVIS's PicoP engine will be in Verizon's smartphone listing. Initially, it could be just a smartphone of limited edition.

(2) To attract more users spending money on the high-speed 4G LTE ( the 1st in the US)  for watching movie, a small HD screen is not enough. The infinite focus laser-based HD projector will be the BIG selling point.

(3) Since Verizon Wireless is a joint venture of Verizon Communications Inc. and Vodaphone Group PLC, it implies Vodaphone will introduce similar offer in Europe soon.

(4) Speeding up the progress of embedding the pico-projector into various mobile products such as eyewear display from Nokia or tablet computers from HP, Dell, Sony, Panasonic, ASUS, or ACER.

    Let's watch closely any news before CES 2011.
   
Side Note :
       Soraa's presentation at SF on Jan. 26. (Photonics West 2011 conference) 
       Time: 9:40 AM – 10:00 AM
       Abstract :

       We present state-of-the-art performance from green and blue InGaN-based laser diodes fabricated on nonpolar/semipolar substrates. Using these novel crystal orientations, we demonstrate high-power, high-efficiency, and long-lifetime continuous-wave laser operation. These InGaN-based devices offer dramatic improvement in performance, size, weight, and cost over conventional gas and solid state lasers and will enable a variety of new applications in defense, biomedicine, and consumer projection displays.

      
       This is a key event for Microvision to have "cheap" green lasers in the future.

(Ref : http://spie.org/app/program/index.cfm?event_id=894269&export_id=x13090&ID=x306&redir=x306.xml&search_text=soraa&type=2&type=3&type=4&type=5&programDays=0&x=59&y=6)

Medical Application : MEMS scanning mirror shrinks confocal microscope

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    Forget about the output function, the scanning Mirror MEMS can also be used as an input device such as a bar-code scanner. However, the more advanced development is a handheld "shrinking confocal microscope".

    Confocal microscopy is an optical imaging technique used to increase optical resolution and contrast of a micrograph by using point illumination and a spatial pinhole to eliminate out-of-focus light in specimens that are thicker than the focal plane. It enables the reconstruction of three-dimensional structures from the obtained images. This technique has gained popularity in the scientific and industrial communities and typical applications are in life sciences, semiconductor inspection and material science.

(Ref : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confocal_microscopy)

    Optical molecular imaging (OMI) is an attractive and cost-effective tool for examining and monitoring disease states and to determine a drug’s effectiveness in living tissue. Highly portable, fast, and less expensive than conventional imaging technologies, it has the potential to bring sophisticated diagnostics right to the doctor’s office.

    In vivo OMI is poised to move into clinical use as one of the key tools in personalized medicine,  complementing more established imaging tools such as CT and MRI. Growth of equipment sales is on track to reach $400 million in 2014 and nearly $1 billion by the end of the decade.

    The market will likely expand in two complementary directions: research systems and clinical systems.  The research market will continue at a steady pace as OMI approaches become more widely used for drug discovery and preclinical studies. Recent advances in imaging agents will power the transition of optical techniques from the lab to clinical settings.

(Ref : http://www.optoiq.com/index/biophotonics/display/bow-article-display/7333675797/articles/optoiq2/biophotonics-/biomedical-imaging/molecular-imaging/2010/1/optial-molecular_imaging.html)   

    Laser scanning confocal microscopy (LSCM) is one of the two tools widely used for in vivo Optical molecular imaging (OMI). Researchers in the US have unveiled a handheld confocal microscope capable of capturing high-resolution images at video frame rates. The key to achieving this sought after combination is a MEMS scanning mirror developed for projection display applications. The team hopes that this breakthrough could pave the way towards a new generation of miniature confocal microscopes.

(REf : http://optics.org/article/42311)

    The utility of confocal microscopy for skin imaging resides in its ability to provide cross sectional images with cellular detail similar to that of histological techniques. Recent work has largely been aimed at in vivo confocal imaging of skin, with a goal of providing a noninvasive sectional imaging method to replace existing biopsy and histology methods for diagnosis of suspected lesions. Though many studies show promising results with the use of bench-top confocal microscopes, clinical usage requires the use of a smaller handheld unit to allow for imaging of remote areas which are inaccessible by larger bench-top units. The compact design of this instrument is achieved by the use of a high-resolution, high-speed bi-axial microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) scanner developed for miniature projection, or pico projector, systems.

    Above all, what does it mean for Microvision? This is the secret card under CEO Tokman's chest. With enormous market potential (plus very high margin) and his connection to GE, the outside world probably won't hear any rumor about the progress in the area until it's fully unfolded. Once the 1080p HD pico projectors are widely available, at the same time, you should see the potential of MEMS scanning-based medical device explode as well.

Note :
(1) Evidence of Microvision's bi-axial raster scanners used in the research, see page 3 of 15 in PDF article below.
(Ref : http://www.opticsinfobase.org/view_article.cfm?gotourl=http://www.opticsinfobase.org/DirectPDFAccess/C8FD55D8-EDC3-9868-C4641C0A025BC025_195543.pdf%3Fda%3D1%26id%3D195543%26seq%3D0%26mobile%3Dno&org=)

(2) Tokman, a 10+ year GE executive, joined Microvision from GE Health care, where most recently he served as General Manager of Global Molecular Imaging & Radiopharmacy—a self-contained, global multi-technology business unit. Over the past five years at GE Tokman defined, developed, and successfully commercialized several new technology businesses including PET/CT,  which added $500M+ of organic top line growth to the company within the first three years of its commercial introduction.

(Ref : http://www.microvision.com/about_microvision/team.html)

Outlook of MVIS stock in the next 6~8 months

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Well, if you're in it, so be honest with them.

At this current stage, Microvision's PPS is in the news-driven mode. The stock price will be floating among investors' emotion. Until it gets through this period into revenue-driven mode, it's difficult to see it go up steadily.

First, the celebration date keeps getting changed. Unfortunately It's not in 2010. This rally is a sucker's rally until we get some meaningful news - be it from MVIS or multiple sources on the internet which gives clarity into MVIS's 2011 financial outlook.

The volume spike is good, but ignore everyone here, until we see something or get several credible rumors about MVIS, it will end with a smack down back under $2/share by the shorts.

The recent insider buying at $1.5 by Michael Fritts on Nov 12,2010  is a good indicator that PPS probably has hit the bottom. In Dec. 3rd and today's bounces, the $1.62 seems to be the price point where the big buyer wants to get in.
(Ref : http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=MVIS+Insider+Transactions)

The first 6 months of 2011 are critical for MVIS. If there are positive changes happening behind the scenes, we may or may not hear about it, but the share price should rally. If you look back the last few years since Tokman took over, share price had its rallies into June and then fizzled out through the end of the year, slowly drifting lower and lower.

So here's why the first half of the year is critical. Today, consumer electronic companies are in the prototype phase of product development. If something is going to have a pico projector in it in 2011, there is an early version of it circulating around. A lot of products get showcased to the public @ CES in January 2011. Many more are not shown to the public and you won't hear about them - MVIS likely fits into this category.

In next February, the Mobile World Congress (Barcelona, Spain on 14-17 Feb, 2011) is when we start to get an avalanche of device debuts for launch in the May - August time frame, which is now the main launch window for most of the new mobile devices.

If you don't hear or see anything between those two events to suggest MVIS is inside a key new product, then your anxiety level should go up a bit, but don't despair. A lot of products are kept secret and only shown to those under NDA (Non-Disclosure Agreement). But - despite the NDAs, information starts leaking out anyway. If by end of the first quarter there is no substantiated rumors about MVIS or positive PR from MVIS, then you should absolutely advise people to sell into the rally for the first half of the year.

All that being stated, I maintain we're into our sucker rally, the PPS will probably drift lower in early next year, and then around the next earnings, will begin to really take off.

The only thing which changes time frame are news about purchase orders sent by MVIS PR, and leaks with their product embedded. If you see a bunch of rumors start about, say, the next iPad having an embedded projector, it's safe to buy and hold for the longs. For short term players, if you hear nothing, again, start planning for your exit .

Will Microvision receive the order from Apple Inc?

 中文版

The answer is of course "yes", here are the reasons :
(1) The superior features of PicoP tells the story. See my earlier article.
(Link: http://pico-projector-fans.blogspot.com/2010/12/why-apple-will-be-using-microvisions.html )

(2) In 03/2010, Microvision recruited Mr. O’Sullivan as VP of global operation.He is a consumer electronics industry veteran with executive management experience at Apple Computer and InFocus. At Apple, Mr. O’Sullivan spent 15 years in operations and supply chain management,  including Vice President of Operations where he was instrumental in building a global operations  infrastructure in Asia. In addition, he developed Apple’s International Procurement Organization strategy,  building a structure in Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, Singapore and Europe. He reengineered Apple’s supplier management organization in Ireland to include supplier quality and integration into the Global Supplier Management group. Recently, Mr. O’Sullivan served as Chief Operating Officer of InFocus, where he built a world class global operations function in Singapore which reduced product cost and  operating expenses.
(Link : http://google.brand.edgar-online.com/EFX_dll/EDGARpro.dll?FetchFilingHTML1?ID=7108366&SessionID=WHiYHWQXC5UvL27)

This guy knows Apple very well. He is the best person to make the dots between Apple and Microvision.  Also his latest job (COO) at Infous which produces DLP projector. It means he understands Lasered-based scanning mirror MEMS is the future. DLP technology won't be able to compete. That's why he abandoned the the ship from Infocus.

(3) Microvision owns close to 500 patents (including pending applications)in the scanning MEMS technology. There is no way for others to work around its huge IP portfolio.

     (Link : http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Enhances-Patent-bw-248645389.html?x=0&.v=1)

(4) A Taiwanese Walsin Lihwa Corp. is the 10% owner of Microvision. It signed a 3-year development contract with Kaai on March 2010  to provide integrated light source  packaging solutions. Only strong companies will tie together.

     (Link : http://financenews.sina.com/MarketWatch/000-000-107-106/102/2009-06-22/090956014.html)
    (Link : http://google.twgogo.org/7612.html)

    Note : Kaai (founded by "father of blue laser" Shuji Nakamura)is now merged with Soraa.
    Soraa is the leading company developing direct-emitting "Green laser".

Why Apple will be using Microvision’s PicoP for embedded pico projector

 中文版

A few days ago, there was a news from Ticonderoga Securities analyst Brian White. The analyst speculated that a pico projector would be a nice thing to have in the next version of Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone 5 to be released in the summer of 2011.

Currently,  there are many pico-projectors competing for the huge potential embedded cell-phones  on the market.  However, to fit into the stringent requirements of a cell-phone, the projector module MUST satisfy the following characteristics:

1. Small size :  How small is small enough, dimension of 5 cc (cubic-centimeter)  is demanded. After DGL (Direct–emitting Green laser), it can be achieved.
2. Resolution : According to Apple CEO Steve Jobs,  “Everything HD” is what he said when he introduced AppleTV during the Q3 conference call  in 2010. Only Microvision has announced that it can do 720P for pico-projector and predict 1080P available in 2012.
3. Battery life:  PicoP can run on battery for up to 120 minutes. No other pico projector can match its performance.
4. Heat dissipation : Since Microvision’s PicoP is using scanning Mirror, only one mirror is needed compared to DLP’s technology which requires a mirror for each pixel. Due to the architectural difference, the laser is on/off for PicoP while DLP needs laser to be on all the time. Obviously PicoP is superior to DLP.
5. Color gamut : Only laser-based light source can reach over 90% of color gamut. Apple always ask for the best.
6. Always in Focus : Due to the characteristics of laser beam, there is no need for additional control button. "Simplicity" is the design rule for Apple's electronic product.

Looking back to the history of HDTV development, initially DLP and LCOS technologies dominated the market due to cost advantage. However,  once the cost is not an issue, also the size/image quality/power consumption all improve a lot along the way, LCD/LED HDTV becomes the mainstream. It's very likely pico-projector will follow the similar path.

Personal Eyewear Displays

 中文版

The leading company in this area is Microvision. The company’s heavily patented Retinal Scanning Display (RSD) or Virtual Retinal Display (VRD) technology was originally developed at the Human Interface Lab (HIT) at the University of Washington. Microvision continues to develop the technology under contracts with the U.S. Air Force and General Dynamics on behalf of the U.S. Army.

Courtesy of Microvision

For a soldier, putting his head down to look at a map or computer display could mean the difference between life and death. Microvision’s personal displays will allow combat soldiers to look out over enemy terrain while using a battlefield computer to view maps, identify enemy locations and choose the optimum path.

The commercial version will take the form factor of a pair of fashionable glasses and is designed to work directly with media players, cell phones and laptops, letting you watch movies, work on a computer, play video games or utilize social networking applications on your own high resolution, totally private screen. Information from your eyewear can be displayed in “see-through” mode, where computer-generated images are overlaid on your view of the real world... or in “occluded” mode, where you intend to concentrate exclusively on the information being displayed and offer  the wearer an immersive, visual experience where the wearer purposefully escapes their immediate surroundings.

                                                          

Nokia Future Vision

It is worth noting that several other personal eyewear displays are currently on the market. However, they are all flawed in some way. They are either low resolution or they look like something from a Star Trek convention (HMD or Head Mount Display). And almost all of these devices block your view of the outside world, making them impractical for mobile use and impossible for “augmented reality”applications. Microvision’s eyewear technology holds enormous advantages over the competition. It can be made small and lightweight, and still provides high resolution, vividly-colored images. And instead of permanently blocking your view, you can toggle between a view of the real world with digital information overlaid, or a totally immersive experience.

Consider the revolutionary applications:

• A physician could view vital patient's data or even live images from an endoscope without taking his eyes off the patient.
• Automotive technicians can view diagrams and instructions over the task they are working on.
• Museums and tourist organizations could provide guided tours (without the guide), “labeling” objects and places and offering information about the sights.
• Video gamers can play in their own 3-D virtual reality world (by scanning a different signal into each eye, the eyewear display is capable of stunningly vivid three dimensional images).
• Firefighters could view building schematics in the midst of an emergency
• Investors can follow their stock tickers, even on the golf course... and without skipping a step.
• Hipsters can “tag” their favorite hangouts... or use their eyewear to locate others in their social network.
• Chefs can view virtual recipes without losing rhythm
• Airline travelers can lean back and work privately and watch a movie on their own personal big screens.
• Giving a speech while information is streamed to your eyeglasses in real time
• Presenting to a crowd with your notes secretly stowed away in your eye glasses
• Walking down the street, seeing your favorite friends show up “on screen” 2 blocks and 1 cafe away
• Receiving turn by turn directions as you walk toward your destination
• Reviewing messages while on the go

Future of Eyewear : Augmented reality in your eyes (NTT DoCoMo)

The applications for eyewear displays are limitless, ranging from entertainment... to social networking... to commercial applications... to those that could be lifesaving.In the coming years, the potential market for personal display eyewear is in the hundreds of millions annually.

Smart Projector

中文版

The popularity of today's flat-panel liquid-crystal and plasma TV displays shows that emerging trends favor large-screen displays. Another display type may soon conquer the entertainment market. That is, projector. However, Video projectors have experienced an enormous metamorphosis during the past decade.These devices now offer admirable cost reductions and performance increases, and they can generate images much larger than the devices themselves. The screens on which they project their images, however, require a large flat and white area. Smart projectors, on the other hand, allow a corrected projection image onto many arbitrary existing surfaces.

     A Smart projector, developed by Bauhaus University (Germany) researchers in January 2005, is able to display correct images onto arbitrary existing surfaces without artificial (flat/white) canvas.

Simulated Demo

     For being a smart projector, the key is to generate the "color corrected images" before they are projected onto the surface. These includes the following steps:

(1) Pre-recorded image of the projected area.

(2) Generate "color corrected image" based on the "pre-recorded image of the projected

     area" and the next  coming image.

(3) Transmit the "color corrected image" to the projector and display.

(4) Repeated steps (2) and (3) until range change detection is asserted.

     Start over to step (1).

     In each of the above steps, the smart projector requires different part of hardware functions.

In step (1), a low cost camera is sufficient.

In step (2), a high power processing unit (also could be power-hungry) is needed to post

                  process the combined images to get "color corrected image".

In step (3), a wireless communication capability will suffice.

In step (4) A range detection function unit.

     In order to conserve more battery power for the projector itself, the high power processing unit (in step 2) is better built-in a separate device where the original video is coming from. Such as desktop PC or set-top box.

     On June 4, 2009, the patent filed by Apple Inc. could be potentially used in such a application . It also places a roadblock to prevent competitors from entering this type of application as the "WOW" factor will surprise the market once more.

(Reference : http://www.patentlyapple.com/patently-apple/2010/03/apple-files-a-mysterious-projector-patent.html)

     One interesting use of this smart projector is to help highway patrol to hide the police car from being seen on the highway. Another one is for magician to have more stunting scenery in the future.  Here is another stunning outdoor show below:

When will "green laser diode" be massively produced

 中文版

         If history is a mirror, then we can probably forecast when "green laser diode" will be widely available.

        Since I am from optical drive industry, I tend to use the first availability of optical player (around $1000 initially) till its price falls below $100 as a reference to forecast when the "green laser" will be cheaply available.

       The "red laser" is used in DVD player (drive). It took 3~4 years (1997 ~2000) for red laser to be a commodity.

        Here is the excerpt from this link :

"Prices for the first players in 1997 were $1000 and up. By the end of 2000, players were available for under $100 at discount retailers."

(Reference link : http://www.pavtube.com/dvd/dvd_player_history.html)

        Regarding the "blue laser", it is used in blu-ray player. It also took 3~4 years (2006 ~2009) for it to be a commodity. First blu-ray player from SONY in Dec. 1 2006.

(Reference : http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?newsyear=2006)

    

        Samsung shipped the First Blu-Ray Player in 06.15.2006

(Reference: http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,1977327,00.asp)

        In 2009, Walmart served up $98 blu-ray player

(Reference: http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-10284342-1.html)

        As far as "green laser", the first commercially available date I can find is around Mar. 11, 2008.

(Reference http://optics.org/article/33263)

    

       Therefore, it's very likely we will see the "green laser" to be commodity in 2011~2012.

Note :

       According to an article (dated on Mar 04, 2010) posted on "compoundsemiconductor.net". It pretty much matches the timeline of what I am predicting now.

"Kaai has set itself several short-term goals, including the sampling of products in the first half of this year, followed by production in the latter half. In 2011 it will aim to ramp production, grow volume, and work hard to fulfill customer expectations.

The plan is to offer both blue and green lasers, and the company is particularly excited about applications requiring both types of source."

(Reference : http://compoundsemiconductor.net/csc/features-details.php?id=19648662)

Pros and Cons of Laser-based pico projector display

中文版

There are many bulky projectors on the market already that can project HD images. However, those “HOT’ projectors generate a lot of heat while working. The majority of them are DLP-based projectors from TI. In the world of green-energy expectation, people are looking for more environment-friendly solutions.

Laser-based pico projector stands out from the competing solutions.  Here are the major advantages of laser-based pico projector:

(1)Infinite focus : No matter how far it is, or even on the curve surface, you can always see the image clearly. In addition, The infinite focus would come in handy for projecting on layered scrim/fabrics/plastics. It would allow your projection to pass through multiple layers of semi-transparent material, and display a focused image on each layer.

(2)Power consumption : According to CNET, the average power required for PLASMA and LCD display are as follows:

Average PLASMA: 301 watts

Average LCD (standard): 111 watts

Average LCD (LED): 101 watts

(Reference: http://reviews.cnet.com/green-tech/tv-power-efficiency)

So the power consumption  ratio of PLASMA to LCD is roughly 3:1

According to wikipedia :

Laser display requires around 25% of the power required by plasma displays.

Therefore, the ratio of laser display to PLASMA is 1 : 4.

(Reference : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_video_display)

In summary, the ratio of laser display :  PLASMA : LCD  = 3 : 12 : 4

Laser display only need about  75% of what LCD display requires.

(3)Color Gamut : About twice as rich as LCD display.  LCD covers about 40% of the color gamut while laser display covers 90%.

(Reference: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_video_display)

(4)Size : Considering the path to HD (High Definition) for pico projector, the scanned laser projector paradigm provides a path forward to higher-resolution projectors without growth in size. 

Unlike fixed pixel-based projector technologies—in which increased resolution means growth in the number of pixels in the array— compared to the single-pixel, single-scan-mirror nature (such as Microvision’s PicoP scan- mirroring engine) remains the same, even as the resolution of the projected display increases.

          The major disadvantage is the cost. There are three R,G,B color lasers needed for the laser display. Currently the bottleneck is the “green laser”. As the direct-emitting green laser (DGL) diode on the horizon, companies such as Sorra(Kaai), OSRAM, Nichia and Sumitomo SEI are the most advanced players when it comes to direct-emission green laser diodes. Production samples are available from 2 sources according to Microvision. Those samples were successfully integrated into Microvision PicoP engine. 

         Soraa's lasers convert about 2% of input electricity into green light. "Our feeling is  you need 8% efficiency for commercial success," says VP Paul Rudy. Soraa is aiming for 10% within a year, he says.

(Reference : http://www.computescotland.com/gan-green-laser-beats-synthetic-3812.php)

         Once the performance requirement (WPE : Wall Plug Effencicy, percentage of power conversion from electrical to optics) reaches the double digit. The mass production will follow.

          Let’s keep an eye on the progress of Sorra as it expects  ‘substantial performance improvements’ in the coming months.

(See the reference link : http://www.ic-marketplace.com/2010/11/non-polar-nitride-boost-to-blue-and-true-green-laser-diode-performance.html)